Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 9.179381 10.528638 11.981663 13.659606 15.540575 17.580747 19.957652
2026-01-18 6.970596 8.750293 10.817860 13.384561 16.471588 20.050303 24.497462
2026-01-25 5.951566 7.919577 10.319565 13.437716 17.355038 22.084375 28.193789
2026-02-01 5.185959 7.273819 9.933114 13.530355 18.225314 24.096199 31.936731
2026-02-08 4.536825 6.669341 9.492215 13.448199 18.785224 25.663688 35.114000
2026-02-15 3.993996 6.134654 9.071487 13.323223 19.234964 27.064963 38.099627
2026-02-22 3.608805 5.770193 8.833598 13.400677 19.924723 28.777782 41.537341
2026-03-01 3.363702 5.578550 8.811624 13.760429 21.002061 31.042170 45.801303
2026-03-08 3.000378 5.167380 8.427819 13.554462 21.241410 32.131588 48.459844
2026-03-15 2.595874 4.647973 7.832785 12.979256 20.888165 32.338180 49.847656
2026-03-22 2.453261 4.535582 7.850491 13.327676 21.913956 34.563011 54.213562
2026-03-29 2.307226 4.401676 7.819645 13.590298 22.811901 36.625841 58.411919
2026-04-05 2.098811 4.144389 7.574237 13.502075 23.172919 37.921894 61.560077
2026-04-12 1.902551 3.888797 7.310320 13.362480 23.439374 39.079864 64.543435
2026-04-19 1.753171 3.702095 7.145526 13.369615 23.930464 40.589887 68.106377
2026-04-26 1.634522 3.560576 7.046588 13.477732 24.585389 42.374954 72.155601
2026-05-03 1.498368 3.370855 6.845170 13.390416 24.901674 43.623405 75.393284
2026-05-10 1.370765 3.184504 6.633842 13.267769 25.144182 44.752305 78.469369
2026-05-17 1.281051 3.065917 6.538335 13.344298 25.727619 46.453383 82.521029
2026-05-24 1.232872 3.029526 6.595759 13.702948 26.818954 49.033605 88.096216
2026-05-31 1.123692 2.850331 6.361005 13.497661 26.891354 49.897295 90.849631
2026-06-07 0.986128 2.592776 5.948993 12.924604 26.263008 49.532961 91.518174
2026-06-14 0.952909 2.569213 6.009851 13.271728 27.337802 52.140956 97.308394